Beyond Firmographic Scoring
Traditional lead scoring: “Manufacturing company, 50-200 employees, São Paulo = 75 points” The problem: Two companies matching that profile can have completely different outcomes. One becomes your best customer, the other churns in 3 months. Firmographics don’t predict success.How It Works
You define the target outcome (conversion, high-LTV, retained after 12 months), we train a domain-specific model on top of our foundation. The result is a probability score between 0 and 1 calibrated to your definition of success.| You Provide | Avra Delivers |
|---|---|
| Historical outcomes (converted/not, high-LTV/not) | Trained model specific to your target |
| Your definition of “good” | Probability score (0-1) for each entity |
| Labeled seed data | Calibrated predictions across your universe |
Scoring Your Pipeline
| Your CRM Lead | Avra Score Output |
|---|---|
company: Acme Corp | conversion_probability: 0.87 |
cnpj: 12.345.678/0001-99 | ltv_decile: 9 |
source: webinar | ltv_range: "R$ 80k-120k" |
Operationalizing Scores
Routing- Probability > 0.8: Route to senior AE, fast-track onboarding
- Probability 0.5-0.8: Standard sales process
- Probability < 0.5: Nurture sequence, don’t invest direct sales time
- Sort daily lead list by score
- SDRs work top-down, not first-in-first-out
- Result: Same team, more revenue
- Replace subjective “gut feel” qualification
- Score provides objective baseline
- Sales adds context, doesn’t start from zero
Powered by two foundations
Lead scoring composes both Avra foundations. The Graph Foundation Model brings entity trajectories and network position from the broader economy — which entities are growing, which are showing stress, who counterparties cluster around. Your Relational Foundation Model brings the patterns specific to your business — what your converters look like, which signals predict your high-LTV customers. The downstream model is trained on both, and feeds signal back into your RFM with every retrain.Customer Data Needed
| Data | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Historical outcomes | Converted/not, high-LTV/not, retained/churned — your definition of “good” |
| CRM records | Lead source, engagement history, firmographic attributes |
| Transaction history | Revenue patterns, product adoption, usage signals |
Output Schema
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
conversion_probability | Probability (0-1) that the entity converts based on your definition |
ltv_decile | Predicted lifetime value bucket (1-10) |
risk_factors | Key signals driving the prediction (network growth, sector health, counterparty quality) |
Evaluation Metrics
- ROC-AUC — Primary discrimination: how well the model separates converters from non-converters.
- Lift at top deciles — Operational metric: how much better the model’s top-ranked leads perform vs. random selection.
- Calibration — Predicted probabilities should match observed conversion rates across score bands.
Combining with Your Data
The best results come from combining Avra scores with your first-party signals:| Input | Source |
|---|---|
avra_lead_score | Avra API |
product_engagement | Your product analytics |
recency | Your CRM |
source_quality | Your marketing data |