---
title: Score Range and Interpretation
description: How Avra delivers credit scores, probability of default, and embeddings — and how to use them.
---

## What you receive

Every credit prediction includes three artifacts:

**Credit Score (0–1000)**

A transformed, calibrated score for easy integration with your existing decision engines and policy rules.

- **1000** = lowest risk (probability of default approaches 0%)
- **0** = highest risk (probability of default approaches 100%)

**Probability of Default (PD)**

The raw probability behind the score — calibrated to your delinquency definition.

- **Direct interpretation** — "this entity has a 15% chance of defaulting under your definition"
- **Pricing and reserves** — calibrated probabilities for risk-based pricing, IFRS 9 staging, and capital allocation
- **Multi-horizon** — PD is returned across 30, 60, 90, 180, and 365-day windows so each decision uses the horizon that matches its policy

**Avra Embeddings**

1024-dimensional representations of each entity.

- **Similarity analysis** — find entities with similar risk profiles
- **Feature engineering** — enhance your own models with relationship-aware features
- **Custom analytics** — segmentation, monitoring, and anomaly detection

## How the score is constructed

The 0–1000 score is derived from the underlying probability of default through a calibrated transformation. The relationship is monotonic — a higher score is always lower risk — and stable across model versions, so policy thresholds you set today continue to hold meaning as the underlying foundations improve.

```json
{
  "score": 842,
  "pd_30d": 0.004,
  "pd_60d": 0.006,
  "pd_90d": 0.011,
  "pd_180d": 0.024,
  "pd_365d": 0.051,
  "risk_band": "low",
  "key_factors": [
    "Stable counterparty network",
    "Positive trajectory over last 6 months",
    "Sector health above baseline"
  ]
}
```

### Multi-horizon PD fields

| Field | Horizon | Use case |
|-------|---------|----------|
| `pd_30d` | 30 days | Short-term liquidity, payment timing |
| `pd_60d` | 60 days | Trade credit, early delinquency |
| `pd_90d` | 90 days | Standard credit bureau equivalent |
| `pd_180d` | 180 days | Medium-term portfolio planning |
| `pd_365d` | 365 days | Annual loss forecasting, IFRS 9 staging |

Each horizon is independently calibrated. The 30-day PD is not a scaled 365-day PD — different signals matter at different time scales, and the model exposes them separately so each policy can pick its own window.

## Defining delinquency

The definition of a "bad" outcome is **defined by you**. During onboarding we work with you to label your historical accounts as good or bad based on your operational definition. Common examples:

- **MOB 6 > 30** — account is more than 30 days past due in the sixth month on book
- **FPD 90** — first payment default after 90 days
- **Charge-off** — debt written off as a loss

The downstream credit model is trained on top of your RFM using your labels. The 0–1000 scale is calibrated to reflect the probability of *your* specific outcome, not a generic default definition.

## Score bands

To simplify decision-making, scores group into operational risk bands. The table below is a general guide; exact PD per band shifts with your delinquency definition, but the monotonic relationship (higher score = lower risk) always holds.

| Score Range    | Risk Band        | Interpretation & Recommended Action                                   |
| :------------- | :--------------- | :-------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **900 – 1000** | Exceptional      | Prime profile; minimal risk. Suitable for automated approval, highest limits. |
| **800 – 899**  | Low Risk         | Very strong profile. Confidently approve with favorable terms.          |
| **700 – 799**  | Moderate Risk    | Good profile. Generally safe to approve, may consider standard terms.    |
| **600 – 699**  | Medium Risk      | Warrants caution. May require additional review, lower limits, or collateral. |
| **400 – 599**  | High Risk        | Significant risk of default. Requires strict terms, guarantees, or denial. |
| **0 – 399**    | Very High Risk   | Extreme risk. Not recommended for credit extension.                      |

## Why probability matters more than the score alone

The 0–1000 score is convenient for decision rules. The underlying probability is what gives you the business intelligence to:

- **Price accurately** — set rates based on actual expected loss
- **Manage portfolios** — calculate reserves and capital requirements
- **Monitor trends** — track how risk evolves over time
- **Compare segments** — understand variations across customer types